Aram MP3 – Not Alone (Armenia) 2014 Eurovision Song Contest
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Sergio George’s Salsa Giants – Bajo la Tormenta (Vídeo oficial)
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We want to answer a difficult and fun question: What are the chances of each team to win the World Cup? To do so, we simulate the tournament tens of thousands of times. This way we can calculate how likely each team is to reach the round of 16, play in the semifinals or win the tournament:
A summary of the model. The graph shows the probability that a team has to win a match as a function of two parameters: the difference in Elo points and the economic value of their squads.
A summary of the model. The graph shows the probability that a team has to win a match as a function of two parameters: the difference in Elo points and the economic value of their squads.
A summary of the model. The graph shows the probability that a team has to win a match as a function of two parameters: the difference in Elo points and the economic value of their squads.
How accurate we can expect the model to be. To calibrate it, we have used a database of 18,000 national team matches since 2004, including hundreds of World Cups and European Championships, and with training data, the model predicts the outcome of 60% of home matches and 56% of neutral ground matches. Evaluated in probabilistic terms, the model’s predictions score between 0.176 and 0.186 (expressed with a Ranking Probability Score, as explained here or here). A reasonable accuracy, if we compare it with other models or with sports betting.
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